Florida's Rotten Fruit

I know that for some, this will strike some as a contradictory note compared with what I wrote on Tuesday evening, but it’s not if you’re reading carefully.  On Tuesday evening, what I told you is that Floridians just voted to re-elect Obama, and I firmly believe that.  The problem is, Florida is an important state, but it’s hardly the be-all, end-all the Republican establishment will spend the next several weeks pretending it had been.  My post on Florida of Tuesday evening should serve as a warning to others, who hold strong conservative and Tea Party values: I believe 2012 will be a watershed year, and the identity of the Republican party’s nominee will define the election.  If we select a conservative who voters can differentiate substantially from Obama on the most important issues of our time, we can win.  If we vote a barely-right-of-Obama candidate, who has similar big government leanings, we will lose, and we may well lose the House, never mind regaining the Senate, but what I need you to understand is that this contest is not yet over.

I’ve explained at length all the reasons Romney can’t win, and I’m certain most readers here can tick them off like a shopping list of items, but by now, we all realize that one thing militates against a Romney victory more than any other:  Romney-care.  It’s effectively the ultimate death-knell of his campaign, and he can’t use it in the general, which is why he’s using it in the primary.  In the general campaign, Obama will absolutely slay Romney with his pathetic “states’ rights” argument, because in truth, even Obama knows that’s nothing but a useless dodge.  Don’t misunderstand:  Obama is fine with Romney-care – it served as the model for his own healthcare reform – but he knows Romney can’t speak of it without doing damage to himself minimally equal to any he might inflict on Obama.

Can Romney claim “Obamacare will bankrupt the nation?”  He can’t if he wants to avoid Obama  reminding voters that Romney’s own program is bankrupting Massachusetts already.  Obama will say his is different enough to bankrupt the nation, and of course, he will use the claims of “social justice” and “civil rights” in opposition to the “states’ rights” argument.  In truth, I can’t imagine how Romney doesn’t wind up yielding on this issue.  I can’t see how he presses it, and frankly, I can also see Obama attacking his position on repeal, which may not help Obama with independents, but it will be his rallying cry to his base.  He will dangle the carrott of its benefits before the eyes of his supporters, while whipping them with the stick of Romney’s promised repeal, and there Romney will stand, flat-footed, neither able to respond in defense or in counterattack, neutered forevermore on the subject.

I keep stressing these points because what you must know is that Florida can still be the aberration and not the trend-setter.  One of the problems we face is turn-out in the coming primaries and caucuses, because Obama’s goons have nothing better to do than to give us our candidate.  In Florida, it was largely Broward and Dade counties that gave Romney his margin of victory, and this should tell you everything: Those are overwhelmingly Democrat-heavy counties, and that Romney did so well in them offers you a clue as to the real identity of many Romney voters there. You can be assured that a large number of Democrats cross-registered so they could vote in the Republican primary, since they already know who their own nominee will be.

Here I sit in Texas, and as anecdotal as it may seem, I know several hundred people here well enough to know where they stand at the moment on the primary race, and what I can tell you is this:  I don’t know a soul among them who wants Romney.  Ron Paul? Sure, a few dozen. Rick Santorum? A few dozen more.  Newt Gingrich?  He has a commanding lead among the Republicans I know, but among Democrats, and left-leaning independents, the answer is unanimous:  Romney.  Some of them have already told me they have registered last year as Republicans so they could vote Romney in the primary.  It’s the plan, you see.

The only way to overcome all of this is for conservatives and Tea Party folk to unite and overcome Romney. Florida’s result need only be as meaningful as you allow.  It needn’t be a trend-setter.  As I’ve explained at length, I don’t believe Romney can win in November, but there is still plenty of time to prevent that from being our sole choice. Romney isn’t a winning campaigner, and while any who oppose him must overcome his bankroll, as I explained on Tuesday, that needn’t be the driving force. It’s now up to you: Lose with Romney or win with a conservative(or at least such reasonable facsimile as we can muster.)  Mitt’s not inevitable just yet.