Florida Primary Looms

Most media outlets are reporting an advantage for Romney in the double-digits, but in looking at most of these polls as I reported Sunday, most have samples that are far too small and margins of error that are much too high.  I’ve seen a concerted effort to raise the sample sizes, and lower the margins of error, but they’re still diddling around with the numbers.  They’re hoping the net propaganda effect will leverage in favor of Romney getting more votes from those who are undecided.  This isn’t surprising, because the GOP establishment is getting a good deal of help from their friends in the media. It’s for this reason I am convinced that the Florida primary will be much closer than is being reported, and it’s also why I suspect there’s still a chance for Gingrich.

The whole purpose of the media massacre that was inflicted on Gingrich last week and through the weekend was to soften his support.  At the same time, I saw a media and establishment theme emerge in which the question of Romney’s Mormon faith was the issue, but not by people opposing him.  Instead, it was from his own camp, alleging that the people of South Carolina just hate Mormons.  You know, that “Christian Right” who have some sort of alleged problem with Romney’s religion.  In this entire campaign season, the only people I have ever heard raise this question were either media shills for Romney, or campaign shills for Romney. I’m located firmly in the midst of the Bible Belt, and I haven’t heard a single person say one word about Romney’s faith.  What I have heard them say, often and loudly, is that Romney’s problem is his liberal record.

I am not inclined to believe this election in Florida is “all over,” or that even were it, that this primary race is “all over.”  It’s simply not true.  Wednesday morning, we will have conducted exactly four states’ worth of caucusing and voting, with forty-six to follow.  I don’t know whose calculus indicates that this somehow wraps things up for Romney, even assuming he wins in Florida, but I suspect Florida is going to be a good deal closer than the media pretends.  My evidence is admittedly second-hand, apart from the manipulated polls, but there’s also the sense on the ground that Gingrich is drawing larger crowds in similar venues, and Gingrich is getting Tea Party support, and this combined with the story NewsMax is carrying about an ongoing Gingrich surge suggest to me the “it’s all over” meme is just that, and nothing more. My advice to Floridians remains the same:  Tomorrow morning, if you have yet to vote, go to the polls and defeat Mitt Romney, even if it means holding your nose. Nothing will deliver a more important message to the establishment, that still doesn’t take you seriously even after the whip-saw turnaround in South Carolina. It’s not over, not now, and not even tomorrow.

Advertisements